Modelling, Forecasting and Testing Decisions for Seasonal Time Series in Tourism

Andreeski, Cvetko and Mechkaroska, Daniela (2020) Modelling, Forecasting and Testing Decisions for Seasonal Time Series in Tourism. Acta Polytechnica Hungarica, 17 (10). pp. 149-171.

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Abstract

Time series analysis for basic tourism parameters, in the countries of the Balkan
Peninsula, have been emphasized in recent research. Moreover, some of them have also
shown a trend, aside from the rising variance during the period-heteroscedasticity. All of
these characteristics of a time series of tourist demand, result in them being a great
challenge for modeling. Therefore, there are different types of models that can be
implemented for the modeling of a time series, which include accentuated seasonal
components. Throughout this paper, multiple tests are performed using several parameters
of the time series, with the ARIMA model, in an attempt to find any influence on the fit and
validity of the model. For the accepted models, series are predicted for a year in advance
and, in addition, a method of testing the decisions made by authorities in the field of
tourism is presented.

Item Type:	Article
Subjects:	Scientific Fields (Frascati) > Engineering and Technology > Electrical engineering, electronic engineering,information engineering
Divisions:	Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality
Depositing User:	Prof. d-r Cvetko Andreeski
Date Deposited:	31 Mar 2023 08:15
Last Modified:	31 Mar 2023 08:15
URI:	https://eprints.uklo.edu.mk/id/eprint/7892

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