Impact of Covid 19 Crises on Tourism Seasonality in Serbia

Trajkov, Aleksandar and Radovic Markovic, Mirjana and Karadjova, Vera (2022) Impact of Covid 19 Crises on Tourism Seasonality in Serbia. EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP Thematic Proceedings, 11. pp. 199-218. ISSN 978-86-6069-202-5

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Abstract

The crisis caused by COVID 19 is without a doubt the most serious challenge the world has faced in its recent history. It began as a health crisis, but very quickly caused serious turbulence in all aspects of life and work and the normal functioning of economies around the world. It was the most serious global challenge almost without exception in all countries of the world in which governments took drastic measures of restrictions and lockdowns, bans on cross-border travel, and even a complete ban on work in certain sectors. According to the nature of its activity, among the most affected sectors was tourism. The pronounced growth of the tourism activity was sharply cut and record a drastic decline in all indicators, both physical and financial. Among the characteristics that are important for the effectiveness of this complex activity is seasonality.

The paper aims to measure changes in tourism seasonality in Serbia due to COVID 19 health crises. The method of triple exponential smoothing (Holt-Winters’ model) is used to analyze changes that Covid 19 has caused on tourism in Serbia. Other methods used for the purpose of the research
are calculations of the Gini coefficient and the Seasonal indicator. These coefficients are suitable for results comparison as they are on an annual basis. Also, the measures are done on a regional level to indicate which region has a bigger impact on a national seasonality and they are structured based on the type of tourists (total, domestic and foreign). Tourist overnights are taken as a physical indicator to measure the seasonality as the number of tourists as an indicator has methodological issues and is less reliable indicator.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	JEL Classification: R10, Z39, C40
Uncontrolled Keywords:	tourism, seasonality index, Serbia, overnights, covid 19, Gini
Subjects:	Scientific Fields (Frascati) > Social Sciences > Economics and Business
Divisions:	Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality
Depositing User:	Prof. d-r Aleksandar Trajkov
Date Deposited:	04 Nov 2022 13:44
Last Modified:	04 Nov 2022 13:44
URI:	https://eprints.uklo.edu.mk/id/eprint/7307

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