Kostoska, Olivera and Hristoski, Ilija (2018) TRADE DYNAMICS, REVEALED COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, AND INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS: EVIDENCE FROM MACEDONIA. Economic Annals, 63 (218). pp. 23-59. ISSN 0013-3264
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Abstract
This paper examines the sectoral specialisation and competitiveness of
Macedonia in relation to that of the EU28,
using four indices of revealed comparative
advantage for the years 2000–2015. Additionally, we estimate the stability of the
distribution and of the value of trade specialisation indices over time, as well as the
duration and probability of the long-term
survival of continuing export competitiveness. The findings suggest that the structure
of Macedonia’s comparative advantage has
changed somewhat over the past few years,
and there is also evidence of a weakening in the level of comparative advantage
as revealed by the Balassa (B) index. The
comparisons made between the implied
(theoretically derived) probability distributions and their empirical counterparts demonstrate that the Markov transition
probabilities accurately characterise the
data-generating process that highlights the
distributions of the B index, and thus allow for obtaining a precise prediction about
the probability distribution vectors, including the limiting distribution. Finally, the
results of estimating the survival function
show that the survival times of revealed
comparative advantage are not persistent
over the period observed. The continuous
decline in the chance of certain product
groups surviving indicates that Macedonia is becoming increasingly vulnerable to
competition from other markets.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Scientific Fields (Frascati) > Social Sciences > Economics and Business |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Economics |
| Depositing User: | Mr Dimitar Risteski |
| Date Deposited: | 24 Sep 2019 09:34 |
| Last Modified: | 24 Dec 2019 08:41 |
| URI: | https://eprints.uklo.edu.mk/id/eprint/1949 |
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