Trajkov, Aleksandar and Dimitrovska, Gordana and Joshevska, Elena and Karadjova, Vera (2026) Productivity Gains and Herd Decline in Macedonia’s Dairy Sector: A National and Regional Decomposition. In: XIV International Conference on Economy, Business & Society in Digitalized Environment (EBSiDE 2026) – Proceedings. Faculty of Economics – Prilep, Prilep, Macedonia, pp. 502-509. ISBN 978-9989-695-85-8
Preview |
Text
PRODUCTIVITY GAINS AND HERD DECLINE.pdf - Published Version Download (4MB) | Preview |
Abstract
This study examines whether productivity gains offset the decline in the number of dairy cows in Macedonia from 2016 to 2025 and how the adjustment varied across the eight planning regions. Official State Statistical Office data are
analysed using symmetric endpoint and annual dynamic decompositions, regional concentration and dispersion indicators, and robustness checks. The number of dairy cows fell by 39.1%, while milk yield per cow increased by 18.1%; total cow milk production nevertheless declined by 28.1%. The endpoint decomposition attributes a negative effect of 171.8 million litres to herd contraction and a positive effect of 58.6 million litres to productivity. Productivity therefore compensated only 34.1% of the negative herd effect; annual decomposition and alternative-period checks confirm that herd contraction remained dominant.
Regional patterns differed markedly: Polog achieved near-complete productivity compensation, whereas the Southeast expanded its herd but experienced a sharp productivity decline. Concentration and productivity dispersion were higher in 2025 than in 2016, but fluctuated during the period. The findings show that productivity improvements can mitigate, but cannot indefinitely replace, a shrinking production base. Stabilising milk supply therefore requires coordinated measures for herd retention, replacement, and region-specific productivity improvement.
| Item Type: | Book Section |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Scientific Fields (Frascati) > Agricultural Sciences > Agricultural biotechnology Scientific Fields (Frascati) > Social Sciences > Economics and Business |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Biotechnical Sciences Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality |
| Depositing User: | Prof. d-r Aleksandar Trajkov |
| Date Deposited: | 06 Nov 2026 14:00 |
| Last Modified: | 06 Nov 2026 14:07 |
| URI: | https://eprints.uklo.edu.mk/id/eprint/11980 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |