Geopolitical Determinants of the European Union’s Migration Policy Shift: From Open-Door to Closed-Border Approaches

Abstract

Europe is facing an intensifying migration crisis along the Balkan and Central Mediterranean routes, prompting a shift from earlier open-door policies toward more restrictive approaches. This paper analyzes the geopolitical forces driving the EU’s evolving migration strategy, focusing on border security, demographic pressures, and political tensions within and between EU Member States. Using a multidisciplinary framework and a critical case study design, it examines governmental speeches, media narratives, scholarly research, comparative national policies, and official data. Germany, Hungary, and Sweden are assessed to illustrate contrasting open- and closed-door models and their implications for security, regional stability, and collective EU governance. The study argues that sustainable migration management requires a more balanced, geopolitically informed framework that reconciles security imperatives with the EU’s normative and humanitarian commitments, thereby ensuring long-term stability and coherent policy outcomes across the EU.