7-12

		
7-12	

81	
PRILEP REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA	
JULY DECEMBER		

ISSN 0494-3244

Тутун/Tobacco,Vol. 64, No 7-12, 59-63, 2014                                                        UDC: 633.71(497.7)”1973/2013”
Original Scientific paper

DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF TOBACCO PRODUCTION , COMPARED TO THE PRODUCTION OF WHEAT, CORN AND SUNFLOWER

Trajko Miceski , Silvana Pašovska

University„ Goce Delchev“ Stip, Faculty Stip e-mail:s_pasovska@yahoo.com

ABSTRACT

A retrospective look at the past period from 1973 to 2013, the tobacco production marked fluctuations in gradual decline.
Also there are perceive fluctuations in the production of wheat, corn and sunflower, in Macedonia, where the production from year to year oscillate with a tendency to a slight reduction in wheat production. The sunflower production is reduced as well there is a slight increase in the production of corn.
For better visibility, the labor movement of the crops is shown in absolute terms in the tons, and their annual average yields in kilograms per hectare (kg / ha) by separate cultures through spreadsheets and charts.

Key words: tobacco, sunflower, production, wheat

ТЕНДЕНЦИИ ВО РАЗВОЈОТ НА ПРОИЗВОДСТВОТО НА ТУТУН ВО СПОРЕДБА СО ПРОИЗВОДСТВОТО НА ПЧЕНИЦA,  ПЧЕНКА И СОНЧОГЛЕД

Ретроспективен поглед на изминатиот период (1973-2013) открива забележителни флуктуации во производството на тутун, со тенденција за негово постепено опаѓање.
Исто така забележливи се и флуктуации во производството на пченица, пченка и сончоглед во Македонија, каде производството од година во година осцилира, со тенденција на благо намалување во производството на пченица. Производството на сончоглед исто така се намалува, а кај производството на пченка има мало зголемување.
За подобра видливост, даден е табеларен и графички приказ на движењето на овие култури во апсолутна вредност во тони, како и нивните годишни просечни приноси во килограми по хектар kg/ha

Клучни зборови: тутун, сончоглед, производство, пченица

INTRODUCTION

The traditional feature of Republic of Macedonia is the production of tobacco, wheat, sunflower and other agricultural and industrial crops.
heir production from year to year oscillates but recently, especially since 2000 there is a tendency of slight declension at almost all agricultural and industrial crops.

On this aspect the production of tobacco features a slight decrease, except for the last four years from 2010 to 2013 where the production is stable,  from  27,000.00 to 30,000.00 little more than the average annual production within the last forty years, which is 26314.00 tonnes.
Following the world politics and intentions

of the EU, our country as a country applicant to EU and part of the world market must have clear image of the dynamic movement to the production of certain products.
In this paper, we provide tabular and graphical  representations  to  the  dynamic

production of tobacco and to the appropriate agricultural and industrial crops, which will show the basis for the future production planning, according to the needs of national markets and bezels.

DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OD TOBACCO PRODUCTION IN R. MACEDONIA

In the last forty years, from 1973 to 2013, the production of tobacco oscillates with a tendency to gradually decline. In table 1 is shown the tobacco production in absolute values expressed in tonnes and registered (purified) forecasted data for the next four years with linear performance and oscillations that are certainly expected.

Table1. Dynamics in production of tobacco in R. Macedonia, (1973-2013)

Years

1973	32.437	30.119	
1974	27.978	29.929	
1975	34.126	29.739	
1976	33.721	29.548	
1977	32.296	29.358	
1978	31.154	29.168	
1979	29.447	28.978	
1980	23.587	28.787	
1981	31.294	28.597	
1982	34.000	28.407	
1983	22.490	28.217	
1984	30.719	28.026	
1985	30.728	27.836	
1986	35.020	27.646	
1987	28.648	27.456	
1988	22.259	27.266	
1989	27.537	27.075	
1990	16.452	26.885	
1991	25.195	26.695	
1992	26.502	26.505	
1993	24.002	26.314	
1994	18.862	26.124	
1995	15.683	25.934	
1996	15.412	25.744	
1997	25.308	25.554	
1998	32.746	25.363	
1999	29.368	25.173	
2000	22.175	24.983	
2001	23.217	24.793	
2002	22.911	24.602	

Tobacco production in absolute values

Tobacco production by purified and predicted values

2003	23.986	24.412	
2004	21.630	24.222	
2005	27.691	24.032	
2006	25.036	23.841	
2007	22.056	23.651	
2008	17.087	23.461	
2009	24.122	23.271	
2010	30.280	23.081	
2011	26.537	22.890	
2012	27.333	22.700	
2013	27.859	22.510	
2014		22.320	
2015		22.129	
2016		21.939	
2017		21.749	

We can say that the  linear  trend  shows the declining in the tobacco production in the last forty years which will continue in the future. But that does not mean that the progress will be according to the values of the regression line, there will be oscillations

and would range around the current average annual production which is 26.314 tonnes for the last forty years. There have been few reasons such as the global market, various EU and other regulations, anti- tobacco propaganda and etc.

DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF AGRICULTURALAND INDUSTRAL CROPS, COM- PARED WITH THE PRODUCTION OF TOBACCO , IN R. MACEDONIA

Global world politics and policies of the EU constantly seek information for the production of agricultural and industrial corps in order to have a better perspective of their development dynamics. We as a country that prefers the global market also

as an applicant for EU member must have information for the production dynamic of certain products. Therefore, in this paper are presented parallel data for the production of tobacco, wheat, corn and sunflower, in a period of forty years.

Table 2. Production of tobacco, wheat, corn and sunflower in R. Macedonia (1973-2013) in tonnes

Number	Years	Tobacco	Wheat	Maize	Sunflower	
1	1973	32.437	275.936	107.755	23.569	
2	1974	27.978	306.384	85.301	21.030	
3	1975	34.126	286.696	96.857	27.162	
4	1976	33.721	368.659	106.235	31.334	
5	1977	32.296	226.293	83.065	28.527	
6	1978	31.154	278.853	70.103	13.476	
7	1979	29.447	280.056	90.999	25.195	
8	1980	23.587	273.406	88.445	23.085	
9	1981	31.294	235.730	91.520	25.052	
10	1982	34.000	272.408	92.878	24.058	
11	1983	22.490	245.566	98.992	24.807	

12	1984	30.719	267.719	88.795	18.491	
13	1985	30.728	288.455	79.194	19.515	
14	1986	35.020	314.655	123.627	41.271	
15	1987	28.648	292.226	95.419	32.951	
16	1988	22.259	296.397	73.956	20.774	
17	1989	27.537	313.752	136.700	46.345	
18	1990	16.452	231.392	79.543	13.419	
19	1991	25.195	340.747	134.958	38.685	
20	1992	26.502	299.522	130.259	37.756	
21	1993	24.002	249.789	101.063	18.841	
22	1994	18.862	336.133	133.211	17.880	
23	1995	15.683	381.226	165.652	22.290	
24	1996	15.412	269.303	142.241	20.586	
25	1997	25.308	293.762	157.234	14.902	
26	1998	32.746	336.562	140.949	13.148	
27	1999	29.368	319.419	160.550	13.937	
28	2000	22.175	299.356	125.383	7.351	
29	2001	23.217	246.208	117.070	5.475	
30	2002	22.911	266.961	140.694	8.760	
31	2003	23.986	225.300	136.492	6.794	
32	2004	21.630	356.825	141.875	7.764	
33	2005	27.691	333.850	148.234	6.711	
34	2006	25.036	293.326	147.494	6.016	
35	2007	22.056	218.076	118.378	3.579	
36	2008	17.087	291.719	127.125	5.444	
37	2009	24.122	271.117	154.237	7.774	
38	2010	30.280	243.137	129.045	7.592	
39	2011	26.537	256.103	126.096	8.497	
40	2012	27.333	214.963	115.928	4.765	
41	2013	27.859	258.960	131.043	3.832	
Total		1.078.891	11.656.947	4.814.595	748.440	
Annual	average	26.314	284.316	117.429	18.255	

Table 2 show that the production of tobacco and other industrial products can oscillate in the last forty years oscillate. In all examined cultures, except the corn, shows a gradual decline from year to year.
Thus, the tobacco production has reached the highest level of 35 020 tonnes in 1986 and the lowest level of 15 412 tons in 1996. But in the last four years (2010-2013) the production is above the annual average. Without going into a separate analysis we will point out that the previous data for the production of tobacco, wheat, corn and

sunflower could contribute and determinate the producers of the conceptualizing future entrepreneurial activities and development of their family businesses.
Considering the fact that the purpose of each manufacturer to grater quantity and quality in production by achieving high yields per unit area, and thus higher profits, then there must have be a recognition in the production, the impact of certain external factors, and the impact of the manufacturers of production.

CONCLUSION

Statistics  for  the  development   trends of tobacco production, wheat, corn and sunflower from 1971 to 2003 in Republic of Macedonia, shows cyclic movements that decrease with the exception of the production of maize which gradually increases.
Such development trends owe a number of factors, such as purchase prices, costs of

production, weather, etc.
The presented data and analysis in the paper can be used for carrying out the findings and to guide the production of the industrial products in future, according to the strategic development of the agricultural policy of the EU and the world global agricultural policy.

REFERENCES

1.	Commission of the European communities, COUNCIL REGULATION fixing the premius and guarante thresholds for leaf tobacco by variety group and Member state for the 2002, 2003 and 2004 harvests and amending Regulation (EEC) No 2075/92, Brussels, 21.11.2001 COM (2001) 684 final 2001/0276 (CNS).
2.	The Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, 1997, National Strategy for Economic Development of Republic of Macedonia, Skopje.
3.	Strategy for development of agriculture, forestry and water management in Macedonia, Republic of Macedonia 1996. Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management of the Republic of Macedonia, Skopje.
4.	Miceski T., 1997. Aspects for a development strategy of the tobacco industry, the 18th Symposium on Tobacco, Ohrid.
5.	Poposki Lj.2001. Situation and Prospects of oriental tobacco market “, Metaphor” Prilep
6.	Statistical Yearbooks of the Republic of Macedonia. www.stat.gov.mk
7.	International Tobacco Growers Association 1994. Tobacco Briefing, East Grinstead, West Sussex RH 18 5FA, England
8.	Tobacco Briefing,”International Tobacco Growers Association”, East Grinstead, West
Sussex RH 18 5FA, England , August 1994.